Why Russia Is Warning Iran – Don’t Give In To US Provocations

Russia is warning Iran not to give in to US provocations, and there appears to be several reasons for the warming than could be obvious.

It appears Russia has seen through the consequences of an all-out Iran Versus United States confrontation for whatever provocation.

This is coming amidst subsisting soared relations which worsened at the beginning of the year, and boarders majorly on clash of strategic interests in the Persian Gulf, Iran nuclear progamme as well as oil wealth.

In its response today, Russia another world power like the US, urging for caution, said “We are urging maximum restraint and caution, not to give in to provocations and aggressive rhetoric”.

The advice came through a Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman, Maria Zakharova, in an interaction with journalists.

The latest faceoff between the two came on April 15, when the United States said 11 Iranian boats harassed its navy ships in what it described as the international waters of the “Arabian Gulf”.

US President Donald Trump tweeted that he had ordered the US Navy to “shoot down and destroy any and all Iranian gunboats if they harass our ships at sea”.

 Iran’s president replied on Wednesday that “the Americans should know that this gulf is called the Persian Gulf, not the New York Gulf or the Washington Gulf”.

Zakharova stressed that both countries should act in “strict accordance with international norms and regulations.”

“Moscow has always considered stability and security in the Gulf to be a key factor that influences the situation in the wider regional context,” she added, according to a report by AFP.

It will be recalled that last December, 27 there was a rocket assault on an Iraqi base that hosts U.S. personnel, that ended up killing an American contractor and wounding several other U.S. personnel.

Almost immediately, the US president responded by saying that Teheran would be held fully responsible.

The Trump reactionwas through a tweet, where he fingered the Kataib Hezbollah, an Iraqi militia closely associated with Iran.

This was followed by Dec. 29 air strikes by the United States on five bases in Iraq and Syria used by Kataib Hezbollah.

Further on Dec. 31, dozens of Iraqi militiamen and their supporters stormed the U.S. embassy complex in Baghdad., and on Jan. 2, a targeted U.S. strike on vehicles near Baghdad’s airport killed Qassem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ elite Quds force, who the U.S. said was plotting attacks against Americans.

It is however instructive that confrontations like this one places Russia in a delicate position, given its interest in the region.

According to the analysis, there is zero possibility of Iran having the upper hand faceon, and the implication is grave for Russia, – it would have lost a strategic ally in the region.,

Some other analysis have looked at it from the point of view that any confrontation with Iran at this time would bring additional distraction and ultimately burden to a government that already has a handful of issues to contend with, including the challenges of COVID-19.

It will also reverberate in increased oil prices in the international market, for which Russia would benefit from.  

“Russia is particularly worried about the current military situation in Syria and wants to prevent any escalation there. In particular, Russia wants to avoid the intensification of attacks by the US on Iran’s proxy forces in Syria” was how one Middle East analysis put it.