Sowore’s Presidential “Vote Less” Path To Political Abortion! – By Amaso Jack (Part 3)

Sowore: “Perception Is King”!
“I am a cultured Yoruba man and I know that when you come to palace, you prostrate to greet the king. Kabiyesi……However, Kabiyesi, permit me to tender three prostrations, 1 for you Kabiyesi, 1 for the Chiefs, and the last one for the people of Ife.” – Omoyele Sowore
(http://saharareporters.com/2018/09/17/rumpus-ooni’s-palace-sowore-not-blame-armchair-critics-and-bedroom-napoleons-can-go-hell)

The point must be made clearly, that this serial is not an attack on political ambition of the man Omoyele Sowore, but a strategic analysis of the strategic implications of his actions and inactions in the palace of the Ooni; a powerful “centre of influence”, who commands the vast sphere of influence, Sowore needs, and the likely impact his perception by that vast sphere of influence would have on his goal of becoming president.

PERCEPTION THE KING REALITY THE SUBJECT.
Perception’s conquest of reality, in the boxing ring of History, with respect to Johnson Thomas Umunnakwe Aguiyi-Ironsi, is a vivid pointer to the power of perception. The historical account of Max Siollun on the 112th page of his New York (2009 Algora published book) he titled: ” Oil, Politics and Violence Nigeria’s Military Coup Culture (1966-1978)” makes the relevant point of the power of perception with Ironsi this way:
“Aguiyi-Ironsi paid for the Majors’ adventurism with his life. All of the Northern anger, malice, and mistrust caused by the Majors’ coup were directed at Aguiyi-Ironsi and Igbo’s in general.

He had some extraordinarily bad luck too. Not long before his murder, he had ordered the release of the opposition leader Chief Awolowo. A few days after Aguiyi-Ironsi was murdered, his successor released Awolowo and got all the credit and goodwill for the move.”

Perception is indeed king. There is no evidence available to implicate Ironsi as part of the January coup, in which he himself was marked for elimination, the only “evidence” is perception, which for him is as intangible as the exhaust fumes that varnish away in the face of facts, but perception made him a victim of the actions of others. He it was who ordered the release of Awolowo, yet Gowon and Ojukwu were contending by perception to take the credit, while in reality, the credit was Ironsi’s.

If perception outsmarted reality with respect Ironsi, in the minds of the Northern soldiers’ segment of his sphere of influence, whose centre of influence he was, until perception by attrition, destroyed him as the centre of influence in his capacity of Supreme Commander and Head of the Federal Military Government, whom Gowon replaced, then Sowore should understand the tactical, strategic and grand strategic power of perception, as a potent political tool.

Again if perception presented the coup as an Igbo coup (going by the lopsided trend of casualties when compared with the ethnicity of the killers) the reality of Awolowo (a Yoruba man) whom the coup plotters wanted to make the Head-of-State, should have nullified that, but it didn’t!

Why? Oftentimes perception is stronger than reality because it appeals to emotions for immediate action, while realty appeals to logic and is slower. If emotions could defeat logic by perception against Ironsi, it can also work against Sowore.

If both perception and reality could cost us a war, they are potent enough to cost Sowore a still born 2019 defeat, he therefore needs to understand the dynamics of perception, in his quest to be president.

A STRATEGIC PARADIGM
This entire serial, is a strategic analysis, for this reason, specific terms and words are deployed:
“Centre of influence”….an individual whose strength of influence is the focal point of attraction for a vast multitude, collectively called the Sphere of influence

Sphere of influence… (in this usage)…the numerical strength or the radius of political loyalty an individual centre of influence can attract and sustain.

“Inner sphere of influence” the closest set of people within a sphere of influence, that have contact with their centre of influence.
“Outer sphere of influence” the vast number of people within the sphere of influence of an individual centre of influence, that have no physical access to the centre of influence.

Attrition the consistent rate of loss best quantified in percentages by ratio.
Tactics the individual short term actions or objectives that add up by synergy with other tactical objectives to arrive at the goal.
Strategy, the long term plan that has three components: the goal to attained, the interest to be secured and the structures to be deployed to attain both.

Grand strategy is the status quo, that follows the attainment of strategic goals. Strategy is everything done to change the paradigm, but once the paradigm has been changed, everything done to sustain the changed paradigm to the point of a civilization is called grand strategy.
Hitler’s third Reich was strategic. The various battles he had to fight were tactical objectives of his strategic goal. Had he succeeded, everything done to preserve Germany as the centre of influence of the new world order (just the way it is for America) would be grand strategic….the illusionary 1000 year reign makes the point of what grand strategy is.

These words and terms (are not just used) but deployed to illustrate the colossal damage of attrition and its effect as a catalyst on the rate at which Sowore is depleting the very sphere of influence he needs to become President.

The 5th part of this serial are the strategic steps Omoyele Sowore should/must take to turn the situation around.

BODY LANGUAGE OF COMMUNICATION
“Professor Mehrabian combined the statistical results of the two studies and came up with the now famous—and famously misused—rule that communication is only 7 percent verbal and 93 percent non-verbal. The non-verbal component was made up of body language (55 percent) and tone of voice (38 percent). Actually, it is incorrect to call this a “rule,” being the result of only two studies. Scientists usually insist on many more corroborating studies before calling anything a rule. “https://ubiquity.acm.org/article.cfm?id=2043156

ATTRITION:
From the documented evidence of what transpired at the palace, Sowore does indeed have respect for the monarch but his body language had at the critical moment connected perception to sphere of influence against him, inducing attrition.

If 55 percent of communication is body language, and prostration is a defined act of body language, it is clear, Sowore by that action, created the perception, that has the capacity (in theory) of reducing the sphere of influence of the respected monarch available to him to a maximum of 55% of the numerical sphere of influence of the monarch. In practice, however, research would determine the percentage of the sphere of influence of the monarch he would have lost by attrition, and that research, would be based on a number of variables.

POWER OF PERCEPTION THE SEPTEMBER 26, 1960 PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE BETWEEN VICE PRESIDENT RICHARD NIXON AND SENATOR. JOHN F. KENNEDY.
Marie Morelli in her article she titled: “3 myths about first presidential TV debate between Kennedy, Nixon”, updated on September 26, 2016 contains the following information:
“Kennedy looked tanned and fit; he had spent time in the sun and brought his own makeup artist. Nixon was recovering from a knee injury that had put him in the hospital; he looked thin and pale and, having refused producer Don Hewitt’s offer of makeup, was seen visibly sweating and with a five o’clock shadow.

The contrast gave birth to …
Myth no. 1: People watching on television thought Kennedy won, while people listening on the radio gave the edge to Nixon.” https://www.google.com.ng/amp/s/articles.syracuse.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/09/3_myths_about_first_presidential_debate_between_kennedy_nixon.amp
Perception not realty is king!

SOWORE AND RESPECT FOR OONI:
It must be made clear that there is no attempt to suggest Omoyele Sowore Intended and or planned to be rude to the monarch, there is no evidence to suggest that.

However, perception has gone ahead of reality to the sphere of influence of the Ooni, by what transpired in the palace, to swing public opinion or the vocal expression of the sphere of influence against him.

The first evidence of which was the reaction of the Ooni’s “Inner sphere of influence” being the palace thugs and the teargas attack, which again were contrary to the values of the respected monarch.

The accommodating large hearted body language response of the respected monarch by the evidence of Bayo Oluwasanmi, was captured this way:
“The Ooni wanted to curse the person who did it, he said the person embarrassed him, that’s the first time such a thing is happening at the palace. Then, the Ooni apologized to us for being tear-gassed and attacked by thugs.

“http://saharareporters.com/2018/09/17/rumpus-ooni’s-palace-sowore-not-blame-armchair-critics-and-bedroom-napoleons-can-go-hell

Unfortunately for Sowore, the “inner sphere of influence” of the Oba didn’t see the realty of his intentions, but his rudness and they reacted based on that. Worse for Sowore’s quest for endorsement by the esteemed first of the first of traditional rulers, around whom a vast numerical “outer sphere of influence” congregates as their the centre of influence, Sowore put the wrong foot forward.

The numerical sphere of influence the respected monarch, at home and abroad, on social media, in beer parlours, half time football viewing centre commentaries, post church and post Jumat service commentaries and bus crowds, who probably wouldn’t find out the details of what exactly happened, would most likely go with the perception, which is politically, tactically and strategically damaging for Sowore, in the ballot box where it counts most.

For Sowore, perception has pushed him out of the Ooni’s sphere of influence, even in the face of his three dimensional prostration.
In politics “perception is king”, but it has to be sustained by the realty of facts, or it would capitulate like a shooting star. Buhari made the point before his 2015 election, but after the election, realty of product Buhari is setting in. As we opened the canned drink called Buhari expecting to see kunu, we were confronted with with a stale drink, that is what happens when reality catches up with the false perception.

PERCEPTION 1: HIS ROYAL “HI” NESS FROM GALLAS?
Cast in his trademark haircut of William Éric Gallas, the French defender, in the game of football, Sowore’s body language could be misinterpreted, within the context of “Sowore bowed instead of prostrating” to mean his ROYAL “HI” NESS. By perception his action may be perceived and misinterpreted as downscaling his ROYAL HIGHNESS to his ROYAL “HI” NESS, by his delayed prostration. Sowore has found himself in the defensive and reactionary position of his hair style mentor William Éric Gallas, his joint “hair”.

PERCEPTION 2: “ENITAN” IS NOT MONITOR
The entire incident at the palace, is pregnant with loads of perceptive children, one of which is the “monitor”. In some primary schools, the class representative; the administrative go between, the school and teachers on one hand and his colleagues on the other, is called a monitor. The monitor is first amongst equals and is often spoken at by his mates, who express their opinion freely.

Sowore’s outburst has the capacity of making the esteemed “Enitan” look like the “monitor”, when he should be regarded as the overall head of the place, that he is!

For those in the sphere of influence of the respected monarch, who hold this perception about Sowore’s action, Sowore (like we saw of Trump in part two) has lost their votes.

The percentage of his attrition loss, is the degree to which he has prevented the sphere of influence of the esteemed “Enitan”, from moving towards him (Sowore) as their centre of political influence. If Sowore by that action, makes the esteemed “Enitan” to be perceived as being downgraded to the monitor (when he is the head) that perception would be the catalyst that will induce attrition against Sowore, downgrading his political value (within the sphere of influence) of the respected monarch, by the vast numbers of those loyal by culture, to the respected Monarch, that will not be available to Sowore in ballot box……if the perception is king, the Ooni is that king Sowore needs on his side!

AND ENITAN CEASED TO EXIST AFTER DECEMBER 7, 2015, JUST THE WAY ELIZABETH STOPPED EXISTING IN 1952.
With effect from December 7, 2015 There ceased to exist any Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi anywhere in Nigeria, just the way Elizabeth Alexandra Mary, ceased to exist, anywhere in England, upon her coronation as Elizabeth II, on 2 June 1953 Both are respected symbols of their respective cultural institutions, both are the human trustees of their respective cultures…..who

MUST BE RESPECTED AS YOUR ROYAL HIGHNESS!
ENITAN STOPPED EXISTING IN 2015! His Royal Highness, Oba Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi Ojaja II, Ọọ̀ni of Ilè-Ifẹ̀, was born Adeyeye Enitan Ogunwusi on October 17, 1974, Until his coronation on December 7, 2015 as the 51st Ooni of Ile-Ife, exactly, 35 years after his predecessor, Alayeluwa Oba Okunade Sijuwade who was coronated on December, 6 1980, as the 50th Ooni, he was one of the many blue blooded princes.

Enitan stopped being Enitan the day he was made Ooni!…..if Sowore’s action is perceived as disrespectful to the Ooni, it will have ballot consequences. His value should be understood from Elizabeth, who stopped being Elizabeth, when she became the queen on June 2nd, 1953.

The same applies to the esteemed Enitan! Mr Buhari of 2014 stopped existing after he took the oath of office, on May 29, 2015. We have President, not Mr Buhari!

The British put the value of their Monach in perspective, in the very lines of their anthem, “God save our gracious Queen”. If Sowore is perceived (not in reality) to be disrespectful to HIS ROYAL HIGHNESS, the sphere of influence of his royal highness, have the capacity to reduce him to PRESIDENTIAL “VOTE LESS”.

As it stands (by perception) has he voted himself into a political abortion? Waiting till 2029 to discover, would a major blunder… but situation can be salvaged…….but “perception remains king!”

To be continued….

Amaso Jack is a political strategist and analyst, he lectures at Nigerian Institute of Journalism, Lagos State