Why Boko Haram Insurgents Are Bouncing Back

Would you know why Boko Haram insurgents and other elements are bouncing back in the country, especially the North East?

A security matters expert, Associate Professor and Head of the Division of Security and Strategic Studies at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, (NIIA), knows and has given the tip.

This Dr Joshua Bolarinwa did in a recent tweet that is already drawing attention on account of his professional pedigree, the potency of the argument and the broader implication of the matter at hand.

First, he acknowledges the impact that the activities of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) has made on the sub-region, stating:

“With a strengthened force of approximately 10,000 soldiers, the coalition’s mandate was to eradicate the Boko Haram extremist group, which has conducted several violent campaigns against Nigeria and the entire Lake Chad Basin.

He also observed that, as a result of the MNJTF’s vigorous operations and widespread military offensives, the menace of Boko Haram insurgents drastically reduced.

“The MNJTF conducted its inaugural significant operation in 2016. Notwithstanding significant obstacles, it achieved substantial progress in combating the Boko Haram insurgency.

“With coordinated military actions, it liberated territories and hostages and successfully neutralised a significant number of Boko Haram insurgents, retrieved weapons, and dismantled several Boko Haram training camps.

“The efficacy of the MNJTF was acknowledged by the United Nations Department for Political Affairs for its successes in curbing the insurgency in the Lake Chad Basin”

So, what then is the problem?

He pegs what went wrong to the withdrawal of Niger Republic from the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) after The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) suspended and placed several sanctions on the country following its revert to military rule.

“It is widely believed that, due to the ECOWAS sanctions, demands, conditions and the threat of using force on the junta if diplomacy fails, might have led to the withdrawal of its soldiers from the borders.

“However, the head of the Nigerien military junta, General Abdourahamane Tchiani refuted the withdrawal from MNJTF by stating, that “Niger is still a member of MNJTF”.

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“Niger is landlocked and shares boundaries with seven countries-Algeria to the north (951 km), Libya to the northeast (342 km), Chad to the east (1,196 km), Benin to the southwest (277 km), Burkina Faso to the south (622 km), Mali to the west (838 km), Nigeria to the south (1,608 km).

Any day, he argues, “The Nigeria-Niger border is the longest, which fosters interactions and interdependence in trade, security, and cultural exchanges.

“The withdrawal of Niger from the MNJTF will create a void that may increase the level of terrorist and insurgency activity

“The absence of military patrols at the borders may provide Boko Haram and other insurgent groups, especially ISWAP with additional incentives to escalate their attacks.

“In fact, the absence of Niger will create a void, leading to an increase in attacks on the outskirts of Lake Chad and the influx of a substantial number of weapons and militants from the Sahel and ISIS, based in North Africa” the professor submitted.

According to him, this may indeed translate to a big setback on the earlier successes recorded by the MNJTF.

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“Niger has been a significant participant in the ongoing counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency endeavours at both regional and global scales, which should be encouraged to continue.

“The withdrawal of Niger from the MNJTF, creates a void that will increase the likelihood of heightened terrorism and insurgency, undermines the accomplishments of the MNJTF, and emphasises the necessity of ongoing regional cooperation in response to shifting security challenges”, he stated.