US Institutes Express Fears Over Nigeria’s 2023 General Election

The US National Democratic Institute (NDI) and International Republican Institute (IRI) joint pre-election assessment trip to Nigeria raised worries about the rise in politically motivated attacks, warned that this worrying trend portends serious danger for the elections in 2023.

The US Council on Foreign Relations’ Senior Fellow for Africa Policy Studies, Ambassador Michelle Gavin, made this statement at a press conference on Friday in light of the numerous attacks on INEC offices and the violent rivalry between political parties in the nation despite the signing of the peace accord by the majority of presidential candidates in September.

Judge Dhaya Pillay, Commissioner at the Electoral Commission of South Africa, Ellen Dingani, Programs Director of the Zimbabwe Election Support Network, Gregory Kearns, IRI Director for Africa, and Dr. Sophia Moestrup, NDI Deputy Director for Central and West Africa are additional members of the joint delegation in attendance at the conference.

Gavin, who was in charge of the pre-election assessment mission, stated that worries about the upcoming election have grown in Nigeria over the past few months while also urging all parties involved, especially politicians and political parties, to pledge to act peacefully before, during, and after the elections.

According to her, “The increase in politically motivated violence has sparked fears that a violent campaign period could be a precursor to significant post-election violence, should the electoral process not be viewed as credible or if losing parties do not accept the outcome.

“The delegation notes the consensus among stakeholders that insecurity is the primary risk factor for the 2023 elections. Nigeria is facing record levels of insecurity in 2022 and conflict has become more geographically widespread and more complex. Increasing banditry and attacks by Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) in the North East and North West threaten to undermine logistics and strain capacity to secure elections.

“Continuing conflict between herder militias and farming communities drives displacement and exacerbates sectarian tensions in states that are likely to be key electoral battlegrounds. Secessionist agitation by Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB)/Eastern Security Network (ESN) in the South East threatens to depress voter turnout. If the election is perceived to be illegitimate, the group could gain significant traction, and potentially become directly involved in post-election violence.”

READ ALSO:  House of Reps Weigh In On CBN’s New Policy, Orders Emefiele To…

Gavin bemoaned the fact that the number of informal security personnel has increased, adding that the violence associated with elections in Nigeria has greatly increased over the past year.

She claims that during the same period leading up to the 2019 elections, electoral violence in Nigeria was more than twice as severe.

She added, “Despite most presidential candidates signing the first peace accord facilitated by the National Peace Committee on September 29, 2022, since then there have been at least 50 reported incidents of electoral violence, occurring across 40 local government areas in 24 states. Attacks on INEC offices occurred in at least four states since the signing of the peace pledge — including an attack on an INEC office in Imo during the delegation’s presence in the country.

“While INEC indicated that materials destroyed in these recent attacks could be replaced, they noted that it would be much more difficult to replace materials if such attacks continue nearer to election day.

“Many incidents of election violence witnessed since the signing of the peace accord were egregious, public displays of partisan violence carried out by supporters and operatives of major political parties. The delegation heard widespread concern about the potential for strategic violence to be employed on election day to suppress the vote in strongholds of opposing parties.”

The two US institutions’ joint pre-election assessment mission noted that the brutal murder of the Labour Party’s women leader in Kaduna a week ago as evidence that violence against politically active women affects women’s involvement in the electoral process.

It was recalled that Usman Baba, the Inspector General of Police, recently stated that the police had received reports of state governors using “thugs” and unofficial security groups to obstruct the campaigning of rival parties. Baba urged governors to maintain their impartiality throughout the election process.

“On a positive note, security officials have committed to removing police commissioners in states where their actions are influenced by political bias or corruption, and the delegation was informed that two police commissioners were recently removed for these reasons,” the body added.

In light of this, the joint pre-election assessment mission recommended candidates and political parties to abide by the peace promises facilitated by the National Peace Committee ahead of the elections and abstain from using or supporting violence against electoral opponents.

It also suggested that political parties sign a second peace pledge to reaffirm their commitment to conducting free and fair elections and to punish their supporters for violating the law.